Research

Updated October 2016.

Current research

Life during structural transformation
(with Huikang Ying) Does the Kuznets process lead to a Kuznets curve? December 2014. To be revised.

Foreign aid and domestic absorption
(with Nicolas Van de Sijpe) What does a new instrument say about aid absorption? Revised May 2015. Under review.

Papers that are “sleeping”

Convergence behaviour in exogenous growth models
(with Jochonia Mathunjwa) We study the approximations used in the study of growth and convergence, and discuss heterogeneity in convergence rates across countries and over time. April 2007.

Dualism and aggregate productivity
What are the consequences of intersectoral wage differentials and urban unemployment for aggregate productivity, wages and returns to capital, factor shares, and sectoral structure? To be revised.

Does external trade promote financial development?
(with Yongfu Huang) An empirical study of the effects of trade on finance. August 2005.

GMM estimation of empirical growth models
(with Stephen Bond and Anke Hoeffler) We advocate the use of system GMM to estimate growth models, rather than the more usual Arellano-Bond method.

Structural change and Europe’s Golden Age
Labour reallocation and productivity growth in post-war Europe. To be revised.

Recently published or forthcoming

Virtuous circles and the case for aid
(with Patrick Carter) How would virtuous circles modify the case for aid?
IMF Economic Review, forthcoming.

Morten Jerven, and what economists do and don’t get wrong
Debating Morten Jerven’s work: Denis Cogneau, Jonathan Temple, Dietrich Vollrath
Development Policy Review, 34(6), 901-905.

Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers
(with James Rockey) How useful is Bayesian Model Averaging?
European Economic Review, 81(1), January 2016, 86-102.

Dynamic aid allocation
(with Paddy Carter and Fabien Postel-Vinay) We examine optimal aid transfers from North to South in the presence of absorption constraints.
Journal of International Economics, 95(2), March 2015, 291-304.

Regional growth and regional decline
(with Holger Breinlich and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano) A review of the economics of regional prosperity.
In Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 2B, The Netherlands: North-Holland, January 2014.

Implementation cycles and the New Economy in retrospect
(with Pasquale Scaramozzino and Nir Vulkan) We examine beliefs in Shleifer’s model of implementation cycles, and link the analysis to the New Economy boom of the 1990s.
Knowledge, Innovation and Internationalization: Essays in Honour of Cesare Imbriani, Piergiuseppe Morone (ed.), Routledge, September 2012.

The calibration of CES production functions
When should researchers “normalize” the CES production function?
Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(2), June 2012, 294–303.

Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK
(with Cliff Attfield) Testing the stationarity of the great ratios, and examining the implications of balanced growth paths for the measurement of trend output.
Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(4), December 2010, 937-956.

Aid and conditionality
A review of the academic literature on foreign aid effectiveness.
Handbook of Development Economics, Volume 5, 2010.

Main papers

  • Dynamic aid allocation
    Journal of International Economics, 95(2), March 2015, 291-304.
    (with Paddy Carter and Fabien Postel-Vinay)
  • Regional growth and regional decline
    Handbook of Economic Growth, Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds.), Volume 2B, The Netherlands: North-Holland, January 2014.
    (with Holger Breinlich and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano)
  • Aid and conditionality
    Handbook of Development Economics, Dani Rodrik and Mark R. Rosenzweig (eds.) Vol. 5, The Netherlands: North-Holland, 2010, pp. 4415-4523.
  • The econometrics of convergence
    Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics
    Terence C. Mills and Kerry Patterson (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
    (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)
  • The methods of growth econometrics
    Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics
    Terence C. Mills and Kerry Patterson (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
    (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)
  • Growth econometrics
    Handbook of Economic Growth, P. Aghion and S. N. Durlauf (eds.), Volume 1A, North-Holland, 2005, pp. 555-677
    (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)

Other papers

  • Morten Jerven, and what economists do and don’t get wrong
    Development Policy Review, forthcoming.
  • Implementation cycles and the New Economy in retrospect
    Knowledge, Innovation and Internationalization: Essays in Honour of Cesare Imbriani, Piergiuseppe Morone (ed.), Routledge, 2013.
    (with Pasquale Scaramozzino and Nir Vulkan)
  • International income convergence.
    The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, K. A. Reinert, R. S. Rajan, A. J. Glass and L. S. Davis (eds.), Princeton University Press, 2008.
  • Balanced growth
    The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (second edition), S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, May 2008.
  • Discussion of Chamon, Mauro and Okawa, Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants.
    Economic Policy, April 2008, 54, 286-288.
  • Discussion of Inklaar, Timmer and van Ark, Market services productivity across Europe and the US.
    Economic Policy, January 2008, 53, 175-177.
  • Discussion of Easterly, Are aid agencies improving?
    Economic Policy, October 2007, 52, 673-675.
  • Discussion of Fabrizio and Mody, Can budget institutions counteract fiscal indiscipline?
    Economic Policy, October 2006, 48, 728-730.
  • Openness and TFP growth: comments and new directions.
    Openness and growth, J. Proudman and S. Redding (eds.), Bank of England, 1998.
  • Growth in open economies. In P. Aghion and P. Howitt,
    Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press 1998
    (with Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt and Stephen Redding)
  • Testing for endogenous growth. In P. Aghion and P. Howitt,
    Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press 1998
    (with Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt)

Reprints

Inflation and growth: stories short and tall. Included in 25th Anniversary Virtual Issue: The Top 25 Papers in 25 Years: The Editors’ Cut. Journal of Economic Surveys, 2011. Previously published: 2000.

Generalizations that aren’t? Evidence on education and growth. Reprinted in Belfield, C. R. (ed.) Modern classics in the economics of education, Edward Elgar, 2006. Previously published: 2001.

The long-run implications of growth theories. Reprinted in George, D., Oxley, L. and Carlaw, K. (2003). Surveys in Economic Growth: Theory and Empirics. Blackwell, Oxford. Previously published: 2003.

The new growth evidence. Reprinted in Dutt, A. K. (ed.) The political economy of development, Volume 1. Development, growth and income distribution. Elgar Reference Collection. International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, vol. 140. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass.: Elgar; distributed by American International Distribution Corporation, Williston, Vt., 2002, pp. 31-75. Previously published: 1999.